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What does Washington want from Tehran: regime change or behavior change?

Analysis of Washington's strategy towards Iran: Is it seeking regime change or behavior modification? A reading of the Politico report and expert opinions on the future of US-Iranian relations.

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What does Washington want from Tehran: regime change or behavior change?

Amid the ongoing tensions in relations between the United States and Iran, the fundamental question that preoccupies observers and political analysts remains: What is the ultimate goal of the American strategy towards Tehran? While a wide segment of followers believe that US President Donald Trump (during his term) aimed directly at “regime change” in Iran, a report by the American website “Politico” revealed a different and more complex vision circulating in the corridors of the White House.

The strategy is to change behavior, not people

The report indicates that the actual objective was not to overthrow the entire Iranian regime, but rather to exert maximum pressure to force it to "change its behavior" in line with US interests and policies. This approach relies on the idea of ​​removing or curtailing the influence of senior hardliners without dismantling the entire state structure, thus avoiding the chaos that could result from a power vacuum.

The report quoted a U.S. official as saying clearly: “Our concept of regime change is behavior change. We have learned some hard lessons from our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan,” referring to the high cost and counterproductive results of nation-building policies following direct military intervention.

Historical context and lessons learned

To understand this approach, it is necessary to revisit the historical background of US-Iranian relations since the 1979 revolution. Washington has consistently oscillated between containment, confrontation, and diplomacy. Following its withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Washington adopted a policy of “maximum pressure,” aimed at crippling the Iranian economy to force Tehran to the negotiating table on new terms encompassing not only the nuclear issue but also its ballistic missile program and regional influence.

Expert opinion: Transform the system rather than change it

In its in-depth analysis, the report cited Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, who clarified the subtle difference in US strategy. Vaez argues that the traditional concept of “regime change” requires massive “state-building” efforts, a path Trump and his team do not favor. Instead, they are pursuing the concept of “regime transformation,” which means largely preserving the state’s administrative and political structure, but forcing the leadership to adopt behaviors that serve US interests, even if these contradict the regime’s revolutionary ideology.

American demands and potential risks

The American demands center on specific points: abandoning nuclear ambitions, halting ballistic missile development, and ending support for regional allies in the Middle East, activities which Washington considers a direct threat to US national security and the security of its allies. Trump has previously indicated his willingness to negotiate with Iranian leaders and even integrate the armed forces with what he called "Iranian patriots," provided these conditions are met.

However, the report’s author warned that excessive pressure or ill-considered military intervention could lead to disastrous scenarios, such as Iran becoming a “failed state” and a breeding ground for extremist groups, or the military establishment taking complete control of the state’s institutions and imposing a new kind of tyranny, thus complicating the regional and international landscape instead of resolving it.

The Saudi News Network first launched on Twitter via its official account, @SaudiNews50, and quickly became one of the Kingdom's leading independent news sources, thanks to its fast and reliable coverage of major local and international events. Due to the growing trust of its followers, the network expanded by launching its website, a comprehensive news platform offering regularly updated content in the fields of politics, economics, health, education, and national events, presented in a professional style that meets the public's expectations. The network strives to enhance public awareness and provide accurate information in a timely manner through on-the-ground reporting, in-depth analysis, and a specialized editorial team, making it a trusted source for anyone seeking up-to-the-minute Saudi news.

Politics

The Foreign Minister discusses regional developments with China, India, and Indonesia

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan received calls from the foreign ministers of China, India, Indonesia and Romania to discuss regional developments and efforts to enhance international security and stability.

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The Foreign Minister discusses regional developments with China, India, and Indonesia

As part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to promote regional and international security and stability, His Highness Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, Minister of Foreign Affairs, received a series of important telephone calls today from several of his counterparts in key countries around the world. These calls included discussions with Mr. Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China; Ms. Oana Toiu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania; Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of the Republic of India; and Mr. Sugino, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia.

High-level international coordination to contain crises

During these intensive consultations, the rapidly evolving events in the Middle East were discussed, with a focus on the need to intensify joint coordination to address existing tensions. These talks come at a critical juncture, requiring concerted international efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating and to discuss the potential repercussions of these events on security and peace, not only regionally but also on the broader international stage.

Dimensions of strategic partnerships with Asian and European powers

These contacts reflect the political weight of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its pivotal role in international decision-making. The talks with the Chinese side, represented by Mr. Wang Yi, underscore the importance of Beijing's role as a major power and a permanent member of the Security Council in supporting de-escalation efforts. Similarly, the engagement with India, through Minister Jaishankar, highlights the depth of strategic relations with rising Asian powers and their influence on global security and economic issues.

On another front, contact with Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugino represents important coordination with the world's most populous Muslim-majority country, strengthening the alignment of perspectives on issues facing the Muslim world. Meanwhile, coordination with Romanian Foreign Minister Iona Toiu adds a significant European dimension to the consultations, contributing to the direct transmission of regional viewpoints to the European arena.

Saudi efforts to promote security and stability

His Highness the Minister of Foreign Affairs reviewed with his counterparts the current efforts to address the latest developments, emphasizing the Kingdom's firm stance calling for prioritizing dialogue and diplomacy, and working diligently to halt any escalation that could threaten the safety and well-being of nations. During these discussions, it was agreed to continue consultations and joint coordination on all developments, in a manner that serves the interests of the countries concerned and contributes to maintaining global security and stability.

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America: Gulf states are countering Iranian attacks, and Washington is intensifying its strikes

The US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman affirms the role of Gulf states in repelling Iranian attacks. Defense Secretary Pete Higseth announces the destruction of 20 Iranian vessels and imminent air superiority within a week.

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America: Gulf states are countering Iranian attacks, and Washington is intensifying its strikes

In a significant development amid the rapidly unfolding events in the Middle East, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Keane, affirmed that the Gulf Arab states and Jordan are playing a pivotal role in defending their territories and sovereignty by activating their advanced air defense capabilities to counter Iranian attacks. This statement reflects the high level of military coordination in the region, with US military officials indicating that military operations against Tehran are progressing at a faster pace than anticipated, achieving tangible progress in neutralizing the adversary's military capabilities.

In a related development, US Defense Secretary Pete Higseth announced at a press conference on Wednesday that the United States is achieving "remarkable results" in the early days of the ongoing war, describing the operation as twice as powerful as the liberation of Iraq. Higseth explained that these actions are a direct and decisive response to the killing of six American soldiers, emphasizing that Washington is committed to avenging their deaths and protecting its interests and those of its allies. He added that US forces, in cooperation with Israel, could achieve near-total control of Iranian airspace within just one week, paving the way for the complete neutralization of missile threats.

On the ground and technical front, military leaders revealed the use of B-2 and B-52 strategic bombers, which play a key role in achieving air superiority, employing 500- and 1,000-pound laser-guided bombs to strike precise targets deep inside Iran. These intensive strikes, targeting approximately 2,000 sites to date, have inflicted heavy losses on the Iranian navy, with 20 warships sunk to the bottom of the Gulf, significantly reducing Tehran's ability to threaten maritime navigation or launch naval attacks.

Strategically, this escalation represents a qualitative shift in the regional balance of power. The Gulf states' active participation in defending their airspace, and the US forces' interception of thousands of drones (approximately 2,000 drones and 500 missiles launched by Iran), underscore the importance of integrated air defense systems, which Washington has long sought to strengthen with its regional partners. This cooperation not only protects lives but also sends a powerful political message of unity in the face of threats that destabilize the region.

Regarding the near future, General Dan Keane emphasized that the current focus is on destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and undermining the regime's ability to rebuild its military strength. He indicated that the next 24 to 48 hours will see an expansion of strikes to include vital military facilities and infrastructure that previously enabled Tehran to support its foreign operations. These developments confirm that the military operation is not merely intended for temporary deterrence, but rather to fundamentally alter Iran's offensive capabilities for years to come.

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Politics

Behind the scenes of Iran's secret communications with the CIA to end the war

A New York Times report reveals secret contacts between Iranian intelligence and the CIA through a third party, and Trump's stance on negotiations amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Tehran's chaos.

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Behind the scenes of Iran's secret communications with the CIA to end the war

In a striking development that reveals the depth of the crisis gripping Tehran, The New York Times has disclosed the existence of back channels of communication between Tehran and Washington, directly contradicting the official public pronouncements. While the surviving Iranian leaders insist on their categorical refusal to negotiate with US President-elect Donald Trump, informed officials have confirmed that elements within the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence have been in indirect contact with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Behind the scenes of secret communication via a third party

According to the report, these contacts were made through the intelligence service of a third country (which was not named), just one day after the outbreak of direct war with Iran. This move suggests a desperate attempt by elements within the Iranian regime to find a way out of the existential crisis gripping the country, in light of the intense Israeli strikes targeting the leadership structure in Tehran.

Washington's stance: Doubts and a shift in Trump's strategy

On the American side, this initiative was met with coolness and widespread skepticism. The newspaper reported that American officials doubt the seriousness of the offer or the ability of any current Iranian official to finalize a ceasefire agreement, given the prevailing chaos and the absence of effective central leadership. President Donald Trump, who had previously hinted at his openness to a deal, drastically changed his tone, declaring from his platform that it was "too late" for talks, and noting with wry regret that most of the figures Washington had considered for negotiations were already dead.

The regional context and fears of a "Libyan scenario"

These leaks come at a time when Israeli officials are pushing to continue the military campaign for several more weeks, aiming to inflict maximum damage on Iran's military capabilities, which could lead to the complete collapse of the government. This highlights a major dilemma discussed by analysts: experts warn that regime change does not necessarily result in a pro-Western, liberal democracy.

Geopolitical analyses suggest that a sudden power vacuum could drag Iran into catastrophic scenarios similar to the civil war in Syria or the chaos that engulfed Libya after Gaddafi's fall. Observers believe that Washington, despite ignoring the current initiative, may find itself facing a difficult choice: either dealing with the remnants of a hardline regime or confronting a failed state the size of Iran in the volatile Middle East region.

Potential US conditions and the future of the conflict

Should negotiations resume in the future, The New York Times anticipates that Washington will demand a full Iranian commitment to abandoning its nuclear and missile programs and ceasing support for regional proxies, in exchange for allowing the remaining leadership to maintain its domestic economic and political influence. However, the fundamental question remains: would war definitively close the door to diplomatic solutions, or would military pressure produce a new Iranian leadership compelled to accept international demands?.

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