Politics
"The Dahieh Earthquake"... and the fate of Hezbollah
It was the "earthquake" on the night of September 27th, a night that caused cracks and collapses, the echoes of which were heard not
It was an “earthquake” on the night of September 27th. That night caused cracks and collapses, the echoes of which were heard not only outside the targeted geographical area (Hezbollah’s stronghold), but also in the hearts of the remaining leaders, members and supporters of the party.
The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is not a matter that can be easily dismissed or ignored. This most violent military operation, targeting the "head" of the central leadership and leading to the consequences it did, has raised serious questions—despite the appearance of Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem (who attempted to salvage the situation)—about the future of Hezbollah after the loss of its Secretary General. His absence has undoubtedly created a significant void, both within the party and among its support base. Furthermore, numerous questions have arisen concerning his loyalty, his political project, his strategy, his military leadership, and his domestic political role. Will he continue with the same approach and arrogance? And finally, is this the end of Hezbollah?.
A body without a head
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah was preceded by a series of precise and successive blows that struck his party at its core, and it is no exaggeration to say that they struck it to the point of bleeding.
The strikes began with the systematic assassinations of senior leaders of his organization, passing through the “Pager” bombing operation, the bombing of his weapons depots, and the burning of his centers and strongholds in the southern suburbs of Beirut or in southern Lebanon, until the operations reached their peak with the assassination of the Secretary-General, as if it were an act of burning his history and identity.
Hezbollah today is under the microscope of everyone, near and far. Without a doubt, it is living with the most dangerous security breach in its history. Without a doubt, it is unable to confront the brutality of the ongoing war, and everyone has noticed its weak responses. Without a doubt, it has been left alone to face its fate after its allies abandoned it. Did they really sell it out and collect the price? Or are they still trading what remains of it as long as everyone has not sat down at the negotiating table to redraw the map of the region?.
The Caliphate and the fate of the duo
The aforementioned reality raises further questions: Will what remains of the party reconsider its calculations inside and outside Lebanon? Are they now looking for a way out of the predicament they have found themselves in? Are they able to continue in light of the feeling of injustice and defeat? Are they able to restore the balance of terror to what it was before the dark day, the day the pager devices exploded, which was the spark that ignited the declaration of a devastating war against it?
And what about the talk surrounding the head of the Executive Council, or "the second man," Hashem Safieddine, as the most prominent candidate to succeed Nasrallah, despite him being a relatively unknown figure in terms of his role and leadership qualities? Even if he possesses the required qualifications, is he capable of bridging the significant gaps and restoring the shattered trust among the remaining leaders, members, and fighters? Is he capable of filling the void left by Nasrallah's assassination, a void clearly visible in the shocked and grieving community? Is he capable of burdening his supporters with further domestic and regional projects that have proven to exceed their capabilities and realities?
Conversely, amidst the multitude of questions, what is the fate of the Shiite duo, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement—the equation established by Hassan Nasrallah and Nabih Berri? Will Speaker Berri accept any change to this equation, which has held the reins of power in the country for decades? How will Hezbollah confront the project of state-building, institution-building, constitutional implementation, and the application of international resolutions? Is it a player in the new internal power dynamics?
As for the host environment, which found itself alone and left to face its fate halfway through, will it review its conditions and options to suit its homeland, Lebanon, which is preparing to embark on a new path?
Hezbollah between two eras
Hezbollah before Nasrallah is not the same as after Nasrallah. Despite what the available leadership on the ground may suggest, the next stage is one of instability within its ranks, instability with its allies and partners in the country, and more instability with its opponents and adversaries at home and abroad, who, even if they hide from it the looks of weakness with which they view its reality, will continue to haunt it in all the challenges that await everyone.
Politics
Israel launches preemptive strike against Iran: Details of the new escalation
Israel announces a preemptive strike against Iran amid explosions in Tehran. Defense Minister Israel Katz confirms the operation, and a US official reveals preparations for further strikes.
In a dangerous military escalation that threatens to alter the security landscape in the region, Israel officially announced today (Saturday) that it had carried out a military strike, described as "preemptive," against targets inside Iran. This move renews direct confrontation in the Middle East, significantly diminishing the chances of reaching a diplomatic solution to the years-long crisis between Tehran and the West over its controversial nuclear program.
Details of the attack and the Iranian response
Iranian media reported hearing loud explosions that shook the capital, Tehran, today, an initial indication that the strikes reached deep inside Iran. In the first official comment, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz stated, "Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran to counter the threats it faces." This statement leaves no doubt about Tel Aviv's responsibility for the operation, confirming Israel's determination to prevent Tehran from developing its military capabilities.
US official: Washington is preparing additional strikes against Iran
Background to the conflict and the failure of the diplomatic track
This attack cannot be separated from the tense context that preceded it; it comes after a fierce 12-day air war between the two sides in June 2015. Although the United States and Iran resumed negotiations this February in an effort to resolve the dispute and avoid descending into chaos, the gap between the two sides remains wide. Israel has insisted that any agreement must include the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, not just a freeze on enrichment, and has continued to press for the inclusion of its ballistic missile program in the restrictions—a demand Tehran vehemently rejects.
The American role and regional concerns
In a related development, a US official revealed that the United States is also preparing to launch strikes against Iran, recalling the scenario of last June when Washington joined an Israeli military campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, which was considered at the time the largest direct US military intervention against the Islamic Republic. For its part, Iran warned neighboring countries hosting US bases that they would be legitimate targets for its missiles if Washington participated in the attack, citing its previous targeting of the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar.
The repercussions of the escalation on international security
This escalation is raising widespread international concerns about the region sliding into a full-blown war that could disrupt global energy supplies and threaten international shipping. Western powers view Iran's ballistic missile program with grave concern, believing it could be used to deliver nuclear warheads in the future, while Tehran continues to deny seeking nuclear weapons, asserting its right to defend itself against any external aggression.
Politics
The foreign minister and his Afghan counterpart discuss de-escalating regional tensions
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan received a call from his Afghan counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, during which they discussed regional developments and efforts to reduce escalation and achieve security and stability.

His Royal Highness Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, received a telephone call yesterday, Friday, from His Excellency Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs. This call comes within the framework of ongoing consultations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Islamic and regional countries to strengthen frameworks for joint cooperation and discuss issues of common interest.
During the call, a comprehensive review of current regional and international developments took place. The two sides focused primarily on discussing diplomatic and political efforts to de-escalate tensions and the necessity of joint action to prevent further escalation that could negatively impact international peace and security. They agreed on the importance of continued coordination to contribute to achieving security and stability for all the peoples of the region.
The Kingdom's leading role in promoting regional stability
These talks reaffirm the pivotal role played by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, in spearheading diplomatic efforts to achieve peace. Saudi diplomacy consistently prioritizes dialogue and political solutions in addressing crises, as the Kingdom is a cornerstone of regional security and works tirelessly with all relevant actors to ensure stability in the Middle East and Central Asia.
The importance of joint coordination in light of current challenges
This contact is of particular importance given the delicate circumstances the region is experiencing, as current security and political challenges necessitate a high level of coordination and consultation among Islamic countries. The Afghan issue and stability in Afghanistan are integral to broader regional security, and the Kingdom consistently supports efforts that serve the interests of the brotherly Afghan people and help them achieve their aspirations for development and prosperity, free from conflict.
At the end of the call, both sides stressed the need to intensify diplomatic efforts to contain any emerging crises, emphasizing that constructive dialogue is the best way to overcome obstacles and achieve the aspirations of peoples to live in lasting safety and stability.
Politics
Trump rejects uranium enrichment in Iran after Geneva negotiations
Trump, speaking from Texas, reiterated his firm opposition to any uranium enrichment in Iran, describing the current levels as uncivilized, thus complicating the latest nuclear negotiations in Geneva.
In a new escalation of the US stance on the Iranian nuclear issue, US President Donald Trump reiterated on Friday his categorical and absolute rejection of any level of uranium enrichment within Iranian territory, even under the guise of civilian or peaceful purposes. These fiery remarks came less than 24 hours after the conclusion of the third round of direct negotiations between delegations from Washington and Tehran in Geneva, Switzerland, casting doubt on the viability of the current diplomatic track.
Speaking to reporters in Corpus Christi, Texas, Trump explained that available information indicates Iran is seeking to reach enrichment levels between 20% and 30%. The US president asserted that these levels cannot be classified as civilian energy uses, stating unequivocally, "This level is not civilian." Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the pace and outcome of the recent talks, summarizing the US position with a decisive statement: "I say no to enrichment." This represents a return to the "zero enrichment" principle long advocated by hawks in successive US administrations.
These statements come at a highly sensitive time, as Geneva has witnessed intense diplomatic activity in recent days aimed at finding common ground to revive nuclear understandings. Discussions have focused primarily on key points of contention, most notably the permissible limit for uranium enrichment and the monitoring mechanisms to be enforced by the International Atomic Energy Agency—issues that form the crux of any potential agreement.
From a technical and political standpoint, Trump's talk of 20% and 30% enrichment levels carries serious implications. Uranium intended for civilian power reactors typically does not require enrichment exceeding 3.67% to 5%. Reaching the 20% threshold, however, is considered by nuclear experts to be a significant technological leap that would shorten the time needed to reach the 90% enrichment required for a nuclear weapon. Therefore, Washington's insistence on a complete ban on enrichment stems from fears that any civilian enrichment infrastructure could be quickly diverted into a clandestine military program.
This hardline stance brings to mind the complexities of the international landscape surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue for many years. The United States believes that allowing Tehran to possess a complete nuclear fuel cycle threatens regional and international security, while Iran insists that enrichment is its sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Trump's recent statements are expected to complicate the task of international mediators and may push Tehran to adopt even more hardline positions in future rounds of talks, leaving the entire region facing open-ended scenarios ranging from diplomatic stalemate to military escalation.
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