In a significant and unprecedented development in the Lebanese political and security landscape, the Lebanese Cabinet, during its session held at Baabda Palace today (Monday), announced decisive measures aimed at extending state authority over all its territory. The Cabinet affirmed the Lebanese state's "absolute and unequivocal" rejection of any military or security operations launched from Lebanese territory outside the framework of official, legitimate institutions, emphasizing that the decision of war and peace is the exclusive right of the Lebanese state and its constitutional institutions.

Prohibition of military activity and restriction of weapons

The government decision included a strict ban on all Hezbollah security and military activities, deeming any such action illegal. The decision also obligated the party to surrender its military arsenal and weapons to the Lebanese state, confining its activities to the political sphere only, within the established constitutional and legal frameworks. This step comes as part of the government's efforts to enshrine the monopoly of arms by the Lebanese army and security forces, and to strengthen full national sovereignty.

Background to the military escalation

This urgent government action came after a serious deterioration in the security situation, as Hezbollah launched a large-scale attack on Israel this morning, declaring it to be in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This attack prompted a fierce Israeli response in the form of intensive airstrikes on Beirut, further exacerbating the rift between the Hezbollah leadership and the Lebanese government, which is making strenuous diplomatic efforts to avert a devastating regional war in Lebanon.

Political context and strategic dimensions

The issue of Hezbollah's weapons is one of the most complex and sensitive in modern Lebanese history, with the "defense strategy" having long been a point of contention among various political forces. This decision aims to redraw the internal balance of power, based on the principles of the constitution and the Taif Agreement, which stipulate the extension of state sovereignty over all its territory. Observers believe this step may be a last-ditch effort by the state to spare Lebanon the perils of becoming embroiled in regional power struggles, especially given the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Humanitarian and field repercussions

On the ground and humanitarian front, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs and areas in southern Lebanon have killed 31 people so far. The strikes caused widespread panic among the population, with thousands fleeing on foot and by car, leading to traffic gridlock and severe congestion on roads leading to safer areas immediately after the bombing began.

The future of the Lebanese scene

This decision is expected to open the door to a heated internal political debate, given the traditional deep divisions surrounding the party's regional role and its weapons. Local and international observers are closely watching the reactions of various political forces and how the party will respond to this government decision, which strikes at the heart of its organizational structure, amid fears of repercussions that could destabilize the fragile internal situation.

A recent report by The New York Times revealed detailed information about the extent of the damage inflicted on Iran's military arsenal, confirming that the Israeli army destroyed approximately 200 Iranian ballistic missile launchers and disabled dozens more. The report indicates that this number represents nearly half of Tehran's total launchers since the 12-day war.

A strategic blow to manufacturing facilities

The newspaper explained that the Israeli airstrikes were not limited to launch sites alone, but also targeted, in the current attack and a previous one carried out last summer under the name "Operation Rising Lion," Iran's central explosives manufacturing facility. This facility is considered the main artery supplying Iran with the materials needed for missile warheads, in addition to supporting other strategic weapons programs, including solid rocket fuel, drones, and cruise missiles.

The context of the conflict and the development of intelligence capabilities

These developments come amid a qualitative shift in the confrontation between Israel and Iran, where the conflict has moved from a "shadow war" involving cyberattacks and targeting proxies to direct confrontations and precision airstrikes targeting military infrastructure. Prior to Israel's 12-day air campaign against Iran last summer, Israeli intelligence had reached accurate assessments indicating that Iran was actively seeking to increase its ballistic missile production to bolster its deterrent capabilities.

The strategic importance of Iranian ballistic missiles

Ballistic missiles are the backbone of Iranian military doctrine, given Tehran's lack of a modern air force comparable to Western or Israeli capabilities. Therefore, destroying half of Iran's launch sites would significantly reduce its ability to launch ripple attacks or respond immediately to external threats, at least temporarily altering the balance of power in the region.

The repercussions of the strike on the regional balance

Military observers believe that targeting solid fuel mixers and manufacturing facilities is more dangerous than targeting the platforms themselves, as replacing the precision manufacturing equipment requires considerable time and complex technologies that may be difficult to import under international sanctions. This Israeli intelligence and military success sends a strong message about the vulnerability of Iran's infrastructure and may prompt Tehran to reassess its strategic calculations regarding its weapons program and regional influence in the coming period.

The Qatari Ministry of Defense announced today (Monday) that vital facilities in Qatar were subjected to a hostile aerial attack using two drones launched from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The attack targeted two strategic sites in the energy and industrial sectors. The first drone struck a water tank belonging to a factory of the Mesaieed Power Company, while the second targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan Industrial City belonging to Qatar Energy.

In a significant development, Qatar Energy confirmed in a subsequent official statement the complete cessation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated product production. This precautionary and operational decision followed the military attack on operational facilities in the industrial cities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, and was taken to ensure the safety of the facilities and to accurately assess the technical situation.

Details of the damages and the official position

The Qatari Ministry of Defense clarified that the attack, thankfully, did not result in any casualties. The Ministry indicated that the relevant authorities immediately began assessing the material damage and losses resulting from the attack, and confirmed that it will release detailed official statements as soon as the field assessment is complete.

The Qatari authorities called on all citizens, residents and visitors to remain calm and reassured, stressing the need to fully comply with the instructions issued by the competent security authorities, and not to be swayed by rumors or circulate undocumented information, and to rely exclusively on data issued by official state sources.

The strategic importance of the cities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed

This incident is of paramount importance given the strategic significance of the targeted sites. Ras Laffan Industrial City is the heart of Qatar's and the world's gas industry, housing the main facilities for processing and liquefying natural gas extracted from the North Field, the world's largest non-associated gas field. This city is the primary hub for Qatari gas exports to global markets, making any disruption there an event with international repercussions.

For its part, Mesaieed Industrial City is a key hub for the country's petrochemical and downstream industries, housing massive energy and heavy industrial complexes. Targeting a water reservoir at a power plant there suggests an attempt to disrupt the infrastructure supporting operational activities.

Potential repercussions for global energy markets

A halt in Qatari gas production is expected to cast a shadow over global energy markets, given Qatar's position as one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Many countries in Asia and Europe rely heavily on Qatari supplies to meet their energy needs, and any prolonged disruption could affect supply chains and cause volatility in global prices, highlighting the vulnerability of energy security in the Arabian Gulf region to geopolitical tensions.