Lebanon is collapsing. There is no water, no electricity, no healthcare, no medicine, and not even passports to help the Lebanese escape death by oppression or starvation, as long as the authorities are unable to pull them out of the abyss into which they have fallen. Instead of this authority and its arms moving, even falsely, towards forming a new government, or suggesting, even falsely, that they are focused on finding even partial solutions to one of the escalating crises, we find that reality is the opposite of what is hoped for. Since Najib Mikati was tasked with forming a new government, things are proceeding on the basis of "stagnating in place." There is no anticipated meeting or even signs of a meeting between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati. Moreover, it has become clear that both men are sitting idly by, waiting for "time," which is the constitutional deadline for electing a new president of the republic, which will begin on September 1st. At that time, the need for a meeting between the two men (the president and the prime minister) will disappear, as will the need for mediation and other factors that move the wheels of a solution.

While awaiting the entry into the “constitutional timeframe,” President Aoun never misses an opportunity to stress to his visitors the necessity of forming a government that will follow up on negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and other pressing matters. However, the visible reality confirms that Aoun is in no hurry to set a date for Mikati, arguing that he asked the designated prime minister to amend his famous formation, which he wrote in his own handwriting and presented to Baabda Palace on the second day after his designation. As long as Mikati has not made the amendments that satisfy the president’s son-in-law, there will be no date set for him.

As for President Mikati, he believes - in turn - that he has done his duty and presented Aoun with the required amended formula in the second meeting that brought them together before communication was cut off, and therefore there is no need for him to request an appointment, as he sees himself as the winner no matter how things turn out, because he is the head of the caretaker government and the designated president, and the powers of the presidency of the republic must be transferred to him in the event that a government is not formed and a vacuum occurs.

Clearly, the two men are not about to meet or reach an understanding on the form of any government, and they do not care about the absence of the “mediator” who worked during the formation of previous governments to mend such a rift. This was evident through the performance of the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and Hezbollah), who are playing the role of spectators, and who were content with a statement issued in the past few hours calling for the acceleration of the formation of the government.

The questions raised are: Has the government file been put behind everyone, and has serious preparation begun for the presidential election? And if Mikati does not form a new government, will he be able to secure the constitutional and political understandings to assume the duties of the president if a vacuum occurs?

In this context, former MP Dr. Mustafa Alloush told Okaz: “The challenge at the moment is for President Aoun to be able to hand over the ‘government’ to his son-in-law Gebran Bassil before the presidency, firstly because there is a high probability of a presidential vacuum, secondly in order to impose a fait accompli from now until the date of the presidential elections, unless an understanding is reached that Suleiman Frangieh will be the new president of the republic.”.

Regarding whether the government file is now behind everyone, Alloush pointed out that “there is an attempt by Aoun to impose a significant share for Bassil within the government, but this will not be possible according to the current data regarding President Mikati, and therefore we are going to the presidential election without an official government and without an elected president.”.

Regarding Aoun’s coldness in dealing with the government file despite the collapse of state institutions, Alloush considered that Aoun has no problem with ruining the country, pointing out that Aoun is a master of obstruction and considers himself the permanent winner in the end, based on the principle that if he loses he will lose everything, and if he is stubborn and clings to some things he can win, and this principle is the result of this man’s experience over the years, from 2009 until today.

Regarding the statement by the Shiite duo calling for the swift formation of the government, he said that it is traditional talk that has no relation to reality, because reality says that if Hezbollah wanted to form a government, it would have asked its pampered ally Bassil to facilitate the government formation process.

Regarding his reading of the presidential elections and the possibility of imposing a president from outside the Hezbollah axis, Alloush affirmed that the available data indicates that Hezbollah is still the primary player in the presidential file, and that it still has the ability to choose the president, especially in the matter of the blocking third or two-thirds, considering that those who call themselves the deputies of the revolution, and those who call themselves the independent Sunni deputies, or the former deputies of the Future Movement, all of these may agree on the name of Suleiman Frangieh, and in this case, Hezbollah can obtain the two-thirds to hold the elections.

Regarding Gebran Bassil's name, Alloush said it was impossible. He pointed to a scenario circulating, based on some information, that Bassil and Suleiman Frangieh would reach an understanding to share power in the next phase, meaning that the presidency would go to Frangieh, while Bassil would control everything from the government to the governor of the central bank, the army commander, and key ministries.

Although everyone is acting as if the government formation process is behind them, there are obstacles that neither the designated Prime Minister nor the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has taken into account, namely the anticipated constitutional obstacles. How can Mikati, if he does not form a new government, be entrusted with the powers of the President of the Republic in the event of a vacancy? If we recall what happened with Tammam Salam's government at the end of President Michel Suleiman's term, that government was provided with the constitutional conditions, according to the political understandings that existed, which allowed it to assume the powers of the President of the Republic. However, this will not happen with Mikati if he remains the head of the caretaker government due to the public disagreements that exist between all parties.

Is Mikati capable of securing these understandings or this political, and therefore constitutional, consensus?