The political landscape in Tehran remains shrouded in uncertainty and cautious anticipation following the announcement of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a series of airstrikes targeting his compound in the capital—an event marking a pivotal turning point in the history of the Islamic Republic. All eyes are now on the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body tasked with selecting the country's supreme leader, amidst international and regional speculation about who will fill this significant leadership vacuum.

Council of Experts: The decision will not be long in coming

In the first official reaction to the succession process, Ali Moallemi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, stated that the selection of a successor to the Supreme Leader "will not take long." In press statements carried by the ISNA news agency, Moallemi emphasized that the Assembly is aware of the sensitivity of the current situation, noting that "members of the Assembly have sworn a constitutional and legal oath that personal desires or narrow factional and partisan affiliations will not interfere in the selection of the new Supreme Leader." This indicates the religious establishment's desire to demonstrate internal cohesion and quickly contain the situation.

Selection mechanism and historical background

To understand the context of this event, it's important to note that the Assembly of Experts consists of 88 jurists elected by direct vote. Their primary task, according to the Iranian constitution, is to appoint the Supreme Leader, oversee his work, and dismiss him if necessary. In this context, Iranian memory recalls the experience of 1989, following the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ruhollah Khomeini. The Assembly convened in an emergency session and selected Ali Khamenei as his successor in a swift transition that averted chaos. Today, the Assembly faces a similar challenge, but within a more complex geopolitical landscape.

The American position: Seeking a friendly regime

Internationally, American statements reflected a delicate balance between strategic interests and political realism. US Vice President Jay D. Vance explained that the US administration was closely monitoring the situation, noting that Washington "prefers a friendly regime" in Tehran. These statements suggest that the United States, despite deep disagreements, may not necessarily seek "regime change" in the radical sense that could lead to regional chaos, but rather aspires to the rise of a new leadership that might be more pragmatic or less confrontational with Western interests.

Potential regional and international repercussions

This event carries implications that extend far beyond Iran's borders. The Supreme Leader has the final say on foreign and military policy, including managing the nuclear program and supporting regional allies. Therefore, the identity of the next Supreme Leader will determine the shape of future relations with neighboring countries and major powers. Observers fear that any prolonged period of political vacuum could lead to internal power struggles that could negatively impact regional stability and global energy markets, which explains the Assembly of Experts' haste in reassuring both domestic and international audiences.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia today (Tuesday) expressed its strongest condemnation of the Iranian attack targeting the US Embassy in Riyadh. The Kingdom considers this hostile act a blatant violation of its sovereignty and a direct threat to security and stability in the region, affirming its categorical rejection of such criminal acts, which contravene all international values ​​and principles.

Violation of international conventions and diplomatic immunity

The Kingdom affirmed in its statement that the repetition of this cowardly and unjustified attack blatantly violates all international norms and laws, most notably the 1949 Geneva Conventions and the 1961 Vienna Conventions on Diplomatic Relations. It is worth noting that the Vienna Convention explicitly stipulates the inviolability of diplomatic premises and obligates host states and all parties to protect diplomatic missions and their personnel, granting them full immunity even in cases of armed conflict. This makes this attack a grave violation of international law that warrants accountability.

A dangerous escalation despite de-escalation initiatives

The Kingdom stressed that this blatant Iranian behavior is occurring at a sensitive time, despite the Iranian authorities' full awareness of Saudi Arabia's balanced stance. The Kingdom has previously affirmed that it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used as a platform to target Iran. Analysts indicate that Tehran's attack, despite Saudi assurances, reflects a desire to push the region toward further escalation and chaos, and undermines any efforts aimed at strengthening regional security.

The right of reply and the protection of national sovereignty

In closing, the Kingdom reiterated its firm and legitimate right to take all necessary measures to protect its national security, territorial integrity, and the lives of its citizens and residents, as well as its vital interests. Riyadh clarified that all options remain on the table, including a military response to this aggression, noting that leniency towards such transgressions could embolden the aggressor to further recklessness, which the Kingdom will not permit under any circumstances.

The Israeli army officially announced today (Tuesday) the success of the assassination operation of Reza Khazaee, who is considered one of the most prominent pivotal figures in the military structure of Hezbollah, describing him as the official in charge of the “military build-up” file in the party, and the field representative of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon.

In detailing the operation, the army statement explained that the Israeli Navy, in close coordination with Military Intelligence (Aman), carried out a focused airstrike yesterday (Monday) on an area in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. This strike resulted in the death of Khazaee, whom the statement revealed also held another sensitive position: Chief of Staff of the Iranian-backed "Lebanon Corps," making him a strategic target in Israel's target bank.

According to the intelligence cited in the statement, Khaza'i was considered the "right-hand man" of the commander of the Lebanese Corps and an indispensable central figure in Hezbollah's military buildup. His tasks focused primarily on logistical and strategic coordination between the party and Tehran, particularly regarding aligning the party's field military needs with the resources and technologies provided by Iran—a process known as "military buildup.".

Context of escalation and targeting of shadow leaders

This operation comes within the context of an intensive Israeli military and security campaign against Hezbollah's command structure and Iranian supply networks in the region. The term "military buildup" typically refers in Israeli military parlance to efforts to transfer and develop advanced weaponry, such as precision missiles, drones, and air defense systems—issues that Tel Aviv considers a red line that threatens the regional balance of power.

The targeting of a figure as influential as Reza Khazaee, who serves as a direct link to the Revolutionary Guard, reflects Israel's determination to strike at the "vital artery" that sustains Hezbollah's military capabilities. By eliminating key figures involved in liaison and military logistics, Israel seeks to cripple supply chains and disrupt military modernization plans that rely heavily on Iranian expertise and funding.

Regional dimensions of the operation

This assassination cannot be separated from the broader regional context, where a covert and overt war is being waged between Israel and the Iranian-led axis. Khazaee exemplifies the kind of commanders who operate behind the scenes to consolidate fronts and unify military efforts between Tehran and its proxies in the region. The Quds Force, which Khazaee represented, is the external arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for operations outside Iran's borders, thus giving his assassination a dimension that extends beyond the Lebanese arena to the very heart of Tehran's strategic calculations.

Observers believe that intensifying the strikes in Beirut and targeting figures responsible for coordination, financing, and arming is aimed at putting military and political pressure on Hezbollah, in light of the ongoing confrontations on the northern border, and an attempt to reduce the party’s ability to replenish its strategic stockpile of weapons in the event of a full-scale confrontation.