Politics
From "drones" to "pagers"... Will technological warfare change the rules of the game?
After Israeli drones roamed freely in Lebanese airspace, posing a significant threat to Hezbollah leaders and members, especially
After Israeli drones, which roam freely in Lebanese airspace, posed a significant threat to Hezbollah leaders and operatives—especially since these drones, operated from within Israel, track their movements, target them, and return to their bases unharmed, leaving behind considerable losses—the dramatic shift brought about by the bombing of communication devices (pagers and wireless radios) in the nature of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah signals a change in tactics and the rules of engagement that have persisted for decades. Observers of the evolving tools of warfare in the context of the technological and digital revolution, where advanced technologies have become a fundamental element in shaping strategic assessments in the fields of security, warfare, and espionage, see that war no longer necessitates ground invasions and face-to-face combat. Instead, warfare has become fundamentally technological, with communication devices becoming the most potent tool for use in conflicts, espionage, and intelligence gathering, surpassing the traditional methods previously employed by Israel to assassinate Palestinian and Lebanese leaders. A report by the Encyclopædia Britannica Limited stated that electronic warfare is the strategic use of the electromagnetic spectrum against an enemy in a military conflict. Israel resorted to this tactic to retaliate against Hezbollah members known as ECM, in addition to intercepting communications (SIGINT). The report argued that intelligence gathering has become increasingly important due to the growing technological complexity of modern warfare and now plays a crucial role in determining whether countries will engage in war in the first place. While modern military capabilities increasingly rely on the electromagnetic spectrum—with combatants using it to communicate with each other and their commanders, understand the environment, report decisions, accurately identify targets, and engage them—the events in Lebanon came as a shock, especially considering that a pager, a wireless communication device used to send signals or short text messages to a designated recipient, emerged in the 1970s and is primarily used in the medical and military fields.
Cybersecurity experts believe the devices were tampered with before reaching Hezbollah and were detonated using a specific code. This hypothesis was confirmed by Lebanese security sources, who stated that the device contained 20 grams of explosives and was detonated via satellite. Specialists believe that the large-scale explosions in Lebanon open a new chapter in the war between Hezbollah and Israel—a "technology war," not just a war of drones, missiles, F-35 fighter jets, or warships. They emphasize that the simultaneous bombings of Hezbollah's communications equipment will also have repercussions for various societies, which are now apprehensive about the dangers of communication devices that can become enemies after having been considered allies. This may force many leaders of terrorist groups and militias to reconsider their approach to using phones and modern communication devices.
The question is: Will armed groups and militias regress and prohibit dealing with the means of technology that they have begun to employ extensively in their conflicts, even though they are unsafe?.
Politics
The Security Council ends the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Hodeidah (UNMHA)
By a majority vote, the Security Council ended the mandate of the UN Mission in Yemen (UNMHA). Learn about the background of the decision and its impact on the Hodeidah Agreement and the future of the peace process.
The UN Security Council announced its decision to end the mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) by the end of March, a move reflecting the significant challenges facing peace efforts in Yemen. The decision was adopted by a vote of 13 in favor out of 15 members, with Russia and China abstaining, indicating a division in international views on managing the Yemeni crisis.
Background to the establishment of the mission and the Stockholm Agreement
The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Yemen (UNMHA) was established in early 2019 as a key component of the Stockholm Agreement reached in December 2018 between the Yemeni government and the Houthi movement. The agreement's primary objective was to establish a ceasefire in the city of Hodeidah and its vital ports (Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Isa), which serve as a crucial lifeline for humanitarian aid to millions of Yemenis. UNMHA was mandated to monitor the implementation of the agreement, including overseeing the ceasefire and the redeployment of forces from the ports and the city, and facilitating humanitarian operations.
Reasons for ending the mandate and its impact
The decision to end the mission, included in Resolution 2813 drafted by Britain, comes amid the stalled implementation of the Hodeidah Agreement. The US Deputy Ambassador to the Security Council, Tammy Bruce, directly stated that “the Houthis’ intransigence has rendered the mission ineffective,” arguing that its continuation was no longer worthwhile in the absence of progress. This decision coincides with escalating regional tensions, particularly Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which have shifted the priorities of the international community and further complicated the already faltering peace efforts.
Transitional phase and future challenges
The resolution provides for a technical extension of the mission's mandate for an additional two months, until the end of March, to allow sufficient time for the orderly conclusion of its operations. During this period, the remaining tasks will be transferred to the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, with the complete liquidation of the mission to begin on April 1. The resolution also requests the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, to present a clear and detailed plan for this transition process in consultation with the Yemeni parties.
The termination of UNMHA's mandate raises concerns about the future of the fragile ceasefire in Hodeidah and the potential for renewed military confrontations in this strategic region. It also raises questions about the effectiveness of international mechanisms in managing complex conflicts and places a greater burden on the diplomatic efforts led by the UN envoy to find a comprehensive and sustainable political solution to the crisis in Yemen.
Politics
The World Bank is providing Lebanon with $350 million to address the crisis
The World Bank has approved $350 million in new funding for Lebanon to support poor families and accelerate digital transformation, in an effort to mitigate the effects of the economic collapse.
The World Bank announced its approval of a new financing package for Lebanon totaling $350 million, a move aimed at mitigating the unprecedented economic crisis gripping the country. The funding is divided into two main tranches: $200 million earmarked for strengthening social safety nets and supporting the poorest families, and $150 million to accelerate the country's digital transformation project.
Context of the stifling economic crisis
This funding comes at a time when Lebanon is experiencing one of the most severe economic and financial crises in modern history, which began to unfold in late 2019. The World Bank itself has ranked this crisis among the three most severe global crises since the mid-19th century. The financial collapse has led to a devaluation of the Lebanese pound by more than 98%, wiping out citizens' savings and pushing more than 80% of the population below the poverty line. The situation was tragically exacerbated by the Beirut port explosion in August 2020, which devastated large parts of the capital and placed an enormous burden on the already strained infrastructure and healthcare sector.
Details of the support package and its objectives
The first tranche of funding, amounting to $200 million, aims to provide direct cash transfers to poor and vulnerable Lebanese families. This support is a lifeline for hundreds of thousands of families struggling to secure their basic needs for food, medicine, and education. The project focuses particularly on empowering women and youth by increasing their economic opportunities and improving their access to essential social services.
The second tranche, valued at $150 million, targets the digital transformation project. This project is of strategic importance given the inefficiencies of public administration and the low quality of government services. Accelerating digitalization is expected to improve the transparency of government transactions, reduce corruption, and facilitate access to public services for citizens and businesses, potentially creating a more favorable environment for economic opportunities and the growth of the technology sector in the country.
Importance and expected impact
At the local level, this funding represents vital, albeit temporary, support that helps prevent the complete collapse of the state and avert a wider humanitarian catastrophe. However, experts agree that it is not a fundamental solution to the crisis. A genuine and sustainable recovery for Lebanon hinges on implementing deep structural reforms, including restructuring the banking sector, implementing a financial recovery plan agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, and combating the rampant corruption within state institutions.
Regionally and internationally, this move reflects the international community's continued concern about the repercussions of Lebanon's collapse on regional stability, particularly regarding sensitive security issues and the refugee crisis. This support is seen as part of a broader strategy aimed at providing direct humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people while maintaining pressure on the political class to implement necessary reforms as a prerequisite for future financial support.
Politics
New Syrian-Kurdish talks: The future of northeast Syria is at stake
Damascus and Kurdish forces are preparing for a new round of talks aimed at integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces. What are the chances of success, and what impact will it have on the future of Syria and the region?
Attention is once again turning to the Syrian scene, as the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) prepare for a new round of talks, likely to begin soon. This round comes at a critical juncture and aims primarily to discuss the practical mechanisms for implementing a recently reached, internationally brokered agreement. This agreement paves the way for discussions on the future of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and the integration of Kurdish forces into a unified national defense structure.
Historical background and complex context
These negotiations trace their roots back to the years of the Syrian conflict that erupted in 2011. As the central government in Damascus lost control over large parts of the country, Kurdish forces, primarily the People's Protection Units (YPG), established a self-governing administration in the northeastern regions. These forces, operating under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), played a pivotal role in the war against the ISIS terrorist organization, with support from the US-led international coalition, granting them significant military and political influence on the ground. While the relationship between Damascus and the self-governing administration has always fluctuated between tension and tactical coordination against common enemies, fundamental disagreements over issues of sovereignty, recognition of Kurdish cultural and political rights, and the distribution of natural resources such as oil have remained obstacles to reaching a lasting solution.
The importance and impact of the upcoming talks
This round of talks is of exceptional importance on several levels. Domestically, any progress in the negotiations represents a significant step toward restoring stability to northeastern Syria and ending the long-standing division. Its success could lead to an agreement guaranteeing a form of administrative decentralization while preserving Syrian territorial integrity and integrating the SDF fighters into the Syrian army, thus preventing a resurgence of internal conflict. Regionally, the outcome of these talks will directly impact neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, which views any armed Kurdish entity on its border with apprehension and classifies the People's Protection Units (YPG) as a terrorist organization. Any agreement between Damascus and the Kurds could alter the regional balance of power and influence the dynamics between Syria and Turkey. Internationally, both the United States and Russia are closely monitoring these developments. For Washington, the agreement raises questions about the future of its partnership with the SDF and its military presence in Syria. Moscow, playing the role of the main mediator, sees the success of these talks as bolstering its influence and supporting the political solution it is sponsoring.
The two sides had reached an agreement last Saturday to extend the ceasefire for 15 days, which provided a positive and necessary foundation for launching these crucial negotiations that will focus on translating the initial understandings into practical steps on the ground, in an effort to chart a more stable future for the region.
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