In a dramatic development that represents a geopolitical earthquake in the Middle East, the news circulating about the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike has plunged the entire region into turmoil. This event is not merely the loss of a political figure, but rather the dismantling of the very top of the Islamic Republic's power structure, opening the door to unforeseen scenarios that could redraw the maps of influence and conflict.

The end of the era of the strongest man

With the passing of Ali Khamenei, Iran loses the man who held the reins of absolute power for more than three decades. Khamenei assumed the position of Supreme Leader in 1989, succeeding the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, during a critical transitional period following the Iran-Iraq War. Throughout his years in power, he consolidated his authority through complete control over the levers of the state, from the military establishment, represented by the Revolutionary Guard, to the judiciary and the media, becoming the ultimate authority, surpassing the presidency, the government, and parliament.

The nature of power and constitutional vacuum

The gravity of this event lies in the nature of the "Supreme Leader" position in the Iranian constitution, which grants the Supreme Leader broad religious and political powers. His sudden absence through foreign military action presents the Assembly of Experts with a historic and difficult test in choosing his successor, amidst speculation of internal power struggles between hardline conservatives and other factions, as well as the pivotal role the Revolutionary Guard will play in the transition process to ensure the regime's continuity.

Regional conflict scenarios

Regionally, Khamenei's assassination raises existential questions about the future of the "axis of resistance" he has nurtured for years. From Lebanon to Yemen, and from Syria to Iraq, militias and armed factions are ideologically and logistically linked to the Supreme Leader. Will his absence lead to the disintegration of this axis and a decline in Iranian influence? Or will the retaliatory response be violent and widespread, dragging the region into an all-out war?

The next phase will not be merely a change of names, but may witness a redefinition of Tehran’s military and political doctrine. This event will either pave the way for a major negotiating table that ends decades of hostility, or it will be the spark that ignites the powder keg in the entire Middle East.

In a firm diplomatic move reflecting the Kingdom's unwavering stance on protecting its national security, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates summoned the Chargé d'Affaires of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Amman yesterday (Sunday). During the summons, he was handed a strongly worded letter of protest addressed to his government, regarding the recent attacks targeting Jordanian territory and several other Arab states.

The Ministry, in its official statement, affirmed its absolute condemnation of these blatant violations, emphasizing that any infringement upon the sovereignty of Jordan or any Arab state is a red line that cannot be tolerated. The Ministry clarified that these attacks constitute a flagrant and clear breach of international law and the UN Charter, and represent a dangerous and unacceptable escalation that threatens the safety of innocent civilians and undermines the foundations of security and stability at both the regional and international levels.

In detailing the diplomatic meeting, the Ministry's official spokesperson, Ambassador Fouad Majali, stated that the Ministry informed the Iranian chargé d'affaires of the necessity for an immediate and complete cessation of all attacks and actions targeting Jordan, whether directly or indirectly. Majali emphasized the need for Tehran to respect the Kingdom's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and airspace, and to fully adhere to the rules of international law and the principles of good neighborliness that should govern relations between the countries of the region.

This Jordanian diplomatic move comes amid a highly tense regional context, as the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan strives to distance itself from regional conflicts and consistently affirms that it will not become a battleground for any party. Amman views with grave concern attempts to drag the region into open conflicts, emphasizing that protecting Jordanian airspace and territory is a top priority for the Jordanian Armed Forces and security services.

Ambassador Majali concluded his remarks by stating that the Ministry had informed the Chargé d'Affaires in a decisive and unequivocal manner that Jordan would not hesitate to take all available steps and measures, including diplomatic, legal and security measures, to ensure the protection of its sovereignty and the security of its citizens, and would not allow its stability to be jeopardized under any pretext whatsoever, calling on the international community to assume its responsibilities in stopping the escalation that threatens global peace.

The Ministerial Council of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf affirmed, in a firm stance reflecting the unity of the Gulf ranks, that the member states of the Council retain their full legal right to respond to any attacks, and to take all necessary measures to ensure the preservation of their sovereignty, security and regional stability.

This came during the 50th extraordinary meeting of the Ministerial Council, held via video conference yesterday (Sunday), chaired by Dr. Abdul Latif Al-Zayani, Bahraini Foreign Minister and current chair of the Council. The meeting witnessed high-level participation, including Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Khalifa Shaheen Al Marar, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Al-Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, and the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Regional context and security challenges

This extraordinary meeting comes at a highly sensitive time for the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions are escalating, necessitating joint Gulf coordination at the highest levels. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have consistently emphasized in their previous statements the importance of adhering to the principles of good neighborliness and international law, rejecting foreign interference in the internal affairs of states, and condemning any threats to maritime navigation and global energy security. This statement serves as a strongly worded diplomatic message affirming that legal and political options are available and guaranteed to defend the national and collective interests of the GCC states.

The importance of joint Gulf coordination

This unified stance is of paramount strategic importance, not only domestically but also regionally and internationally. Regionally, this declaration reinforces the principle of "collective security" upon which the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was founded, which considers any threat to a member state a threat to the entire organization. Internationally, the stability of the Gulf region is a cornerstone of the global economy, given its pivotal role in energy markets. Therefore, the Council's assertion of its right to respond and maintain stability reassures the international community of a wise and decisive leadership capable of managing crises with prudence and competence, while adhering to international law as the fundamental framework for conflict resolution.