In a dramatic development that represents a geopolitical earthquake in the Middle East, the news circulating about the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike has plunged the entire region into turmoil. This event is not merely the loss of a political figure, but rather the dismantling of the very top of the Islamic Republic's power structure, opening the door to unforeseen scenarios that could redraw the maps of influence and conflict.

The end of the era of the strongest man

With the passing of Ali Khamenei, Iran loses the man who held the reins of absolute power for more than three decades. Khamenei assumed the position of Supreme Leader in 1989, succeeding the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, during a critical transitional period following the Iran-Iraq War. Throughout his years in power, he consolidated his authority through complete control over the levers of the state, from the military establishment, represented by the Revolutionary Guard, to the judiciary and the media, becoming the ultimate authority, surpassing the presidency, the government, and parliament.

The nature of power and constitutional vacuum

The gravity of this event lies in the nature of the "Supreme Leader" position in the Iranian constitution, which grants the Supreme Leader broad religious and political powers. His sudden absence through foreign military action presents the Assembly of Experts with a historic and difficult test in choosing his successor, amidst speculation of internal power struggles between hardline conservatives and other factions, as well as the pivotal role the Revolutionary Guard will play in the transition process to ensure the regime's continuity.

Regional conflict scenarios

Regionally, Khamenei's assassination raises existential questions about the future of the "axis of resistance" he has nurtured for years. From Lebanon to Yemen, and from Syria to Iraq, militias and armed factions are ideologically and logistically linked to the Supreme Leader. Will his absence lead to the disintegration of this axis and a decline in Iranian influence? Or will the retaliatory response be violent and widespread, dragging the region into an all-out war?

The next phase will not be merely a change of names, but may witness a redefinition of Tehran’s military and political doctrine. This event will either pave the way for a major negotiating table that ends decades of hostility, or it will be the spark that ignites the powder keg in the entire Middle East.

The General Secretariat of the League of Arab States expressed its categorical condemnation and strong denunciation of the repeated targeting of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Arab states, which was recently manifested in the Iranian attacks that constitute a flagrant violation of international laws and conventions, and a clear transgression of the principles of good neighborliness that should govern relations between the countries of the region.

In an official statement, the member states of the Arab League affirmed that these hostile practices pose grave risks, not only threatening the security of the targeted state but also extending their negative repercussions to threaten Arab national security and the stability of the entire Middle East region. The statement emphasized that remaining silent about such transgressions could encourage further tension and escalation at a time when the region desperately needs de-escalation and constructive cooperation, not conflict.

In a related context, the Arab League reaffirmed its firm strategic principle that "the security of Arab states is indivisible," noting that any infringement upon the sovereignty of any Arab state is considered a direct attack on the Arab system as a whole. The League declared its categorical and absolute rejection of any justifications or pretexts that Tehran might offer to legitimize these attacks, asserting that respect for national sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs are the cornerstones of sound international relations.

These alarming developments come amidst highly complex regional and international circumstances, with the region grappling with multiple crises that demand concerted diplomatic efforts. Observers and political analysts believe that Iran's continued interference in Arab affairs, whether through direct military action or other means, undermines the prospects for lasting peace and threatens global trade routes and vital energy supplies, thus necessitating a firm and unified international stance.

It is worth noting that the concept of Arab national security is based on a unified strategic vision that rejects foreign interference and considers the stability of Arab states a fundamental pillar of international peace and security. The geostrategic location of Arab states, with their vital waterways and natural resources, makes any military tension within them a source of global concern that transcends regional boundaries. Therefore, the current Arab condemnation is not merely a fleeting political stance, but rather a warning to the international community about the necessity of confronting policies aimed at destabilizing and forcibly altering the balance of power in the region.

The university concluded its statement by calling on the international community and the United Nations Security Council to assume their legal and moral responsibilities in maintaining international peace and security, and to exert effective pressure to stop these violations that hinder development and prosperity efforts in the Arab world, stressing the legitimate right of Arab states to defend their territories and peoples by all means guaranteed by international law.

In a firm diplomatic move reflecting the Kingdom's unwavering stance on protecting its national security, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates summoned the Chargé d'Affaires of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Amman yesterday (Sunday). During the summons, he was handed a strongly worded letter of protest addressed to his government, regarding the recent attacks targeting Jordanian territory and several other Arab states.

The Ministry, in its official statement, affirmed its absolute condemnation of these blatant violations, emphasizing that any infringement upon the sovereignty of Jordan or any Arab state is a red line that cannot be tolerated. The Ministry clarified that these attacks constitute a flagrant and clear breach of international law and the UN Charter, and represent a dangerous and unacceptable escalation that threatens the safety of innocent civilians and undermines the foundations of security and stability at both the regional and international levels.

In detailing the diplomatic meeting, the Ministry's official spokesperson, Ambassador Fouad Majali, stated that the Ministry informed the Iranian chargé d'affaires of the necessity for an immediate and complete cessation of all attacks and actions targeting Jordan, whether directly or indirectly. Majali emphasized the need for Tehran to respect the Kingdom's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and airspace, and to fully adhere to the rules of international law and the principles of good neighborliness that should govern relations between the countries of the region.

This Jordanian diplomatic move comes amid a highly tense regional context, as the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan strives to distance itself from regional conflicts and consistently affirms that it will not become a battleground for any party. Amman views with grave concern attempts to drag the region into open conflicts, emphasizing that protecting Jordanian airspace and territory is a top priority for the Jordanian Armed Forces and security services.

Ambassador Majali concluded his remarks by stating that the Ministry had informed the Chargé d'Affaires in a decisive and unequivocal manner that Jordan would not hesitate to take all available steps and measures, including diplomatic, legal and security measures, to ensure the protection of its sovereignty and the security of its citizens, and would not allow its stability to be jeopardized under any pretext whatsoever, calling on the international community to assume its responsibilities in stopping the escalation that threatens global peace.