Given the dire security situation in Lebanon, and with the ongoing Israeli aggression and the expansion of airstrikes and drone attacks, extending the term of the current parliament has become the most likely and realistic scenario. Political sources indicate that a number of MPs began last night drafting an expedited bill to extend the current parliament's term for an additional two years, in order to avoid a legislative vacuum given the impossibility of holding elections.

This proposal is expected to be included on the agenda of a legislative session that Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri intends to convene no later than the end of this week or the beginning of next week. Information in this context indicates that Speaker Berri, who had been adamant about adhering to constitutional deadlines, received information suggesting the difficulty of holding the elections. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in agreement with President Joseph Aoun, informed him that the current field and logistical conditions render holding the elections impossible, prompting most parliamentary blocs to express their initial agreement to the extension option as an inevitable necessity.

Unprecedented escalation on the ground and psychological warfare

On the ground, the Israeli war on Lebanon entered its third consecutive day with even greater intensity. Operations were no longer limited to airstrikes and assassinations; the Israeli side introduced a new element to its psychological warfare: "false calls." Telecommunications networks recorded more than 800 suspicious calls within a few hours, targeting citizens in various Lebanese regions, including a building housing MP Imad Hout, the Palace of Justice in Baabda, and even customs and security personnel at the Masnaa border crossing, urging them to evacuate immediately. This created a state of panic and fear among civilians.

In the context of direct targeting, airstrikes hit a residential area in Aramoun, east of Beirut, targeting a member of the Islamic Group. This coincided with a mysterious assassination at the Comfort Hotel in the Hazmieh-Baabda area, where the identity of the targeted individual remains unknown. The Israeli Air Force also intensified its airstrikes to an unprecedented degree across the entire area south of the Litani River, transforming it into a military operations zone. This led to a large-scale displacement of residents from border towns towards safer areas in the north.

Historical background and constitutional reality

This situation is reminiscent of past scenarios in Lebanon, where Parliament resorted to extending its own term on several occasions (most notably between 2013 and 2017) under the pretext of compelling security circumstances. Legislators base this approach on the principle of "force majeure," which they argue prevents the proper practice of democracy, especially given the presence of hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have fled their villages. This, they contend, renders the electoral process illegitimate and unconstitutional if it is held without the participation of large areas of the South and the Bekaa Valley.

In a significant development reflecting the sensitivity of the current situation, the Lebanese army has carried out tactical redeployments, withdrawing from some advanced border positions to its main rear bases. This measure comes in compliance with the political leadership's decision to avoid engaging in a direct and unequal confrontation, and amid intelligence reports of Israeli intentions to conduct limited ground incursions, following warnings issued to more than 120 southern towns. This places the country at a dangerous political and military crossroads that could alter the face of the region.

Given the dire security situation in Lebanon, postponing parliamentary elections and extending the term of the current parliament has become the most likely and realistic scenario. Political sources close to the legislative process indicate that several MPs began drafting a bill last night to extend the parliament's term for two full years, in order to avoid a legislative vacuum given the impossibility of holding elections.

Nabih Berri may convene at the end of this week or, at the latest, the beginning of next week, for its approval. Despite the Speaker's previous adherence to constitutional deadlines, dramatic developments have created a new reality, particularly after consultations with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam —according to the source—and in agreement with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. These consultations concluded that holding the elections is now "not possible" logistically and from a security standpoint.

Political context and historical background

This move toward extending the parliamentary term is not unprecedented in modern Lebanese politics. Lebanon has witnessed similar scenarios during previous periods of instability, with Parliament resorting to extending its mandate several times (as happened between 2013 and 2017) to avoid institutional vacuum. The current consensus among most parliamentary blocs on the "two-year extension" option reflects a tacit acknowledgment that the current crisis transcends a mere border tension; it is a state of open warfare with potentially protracted repercussions, thus necessitating the suspension of constitutional processes until the situation on the ground becomes clearer.

Field escalation and psychological warfare

On the ground, Israel continued its war on Lebanon for the third consecutive day at an escalating pace, employing new strategies that went beyond conventional bombing. The element of "psychological warfare" in an unprecedented manner, with more than 80,000 false phone calls detected within a few hours, aimed at spreading panic and terror among residents in various Lebanese regions and urging them to evacuate. These threats did not spare official institutions, targeting customs and security personnel at the Masnaa border crossing, the Palace of Justice in Baabda, and even the residence of MP Imad Hout.

In the context of direct military operations, the Israeli army expanded its targets to include densely populated residential areas, as happened in the Aramoun east of Beirut, where a member of the Islamic Group was targeted, in addition to a mysterious assassination inside the Comfort Hotel in the Hazmieh-Baabda area. Simultaneously, the Israeli Air Force launched a series of intense and violent raids on all the villages south of the Litani River, leading to a massive exodus and the complete depopulation of border towns.

Repercussions of the military situation

Faced with this bloody scene and indications of a potential ground incursion, the Lebanese army carried out tactical redeployments, withdrawing from some forward positions to its main bases, in compliance with the political authority's decision to avoid engaging in a direct and unequal confrontation at present. This withdrawal, coinciding with Israeli warnings targeting more than 120 towns, presents Lebanon with enormous humanitarian and political challenges, making talk of holding elections on schedule a pipe dream and pushing the country into a new phase of political uncertainty under the shadow of war.